How to Get the Southern Vote: Send Howard Dean?

Howard Dean has ripped up some carpet and fashioned a bag out of it -- he's heading down to the South to stump for Obama in the next few days while Obama traipses around Europe like Daisy Miller. Vandy Prof. John Geer argues that Obama winning even four former Confederate states is pretty unlikely.

Stunning the masses with revolutionary thinking, Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi blames race: “Unfortunately, there is going to be a backlash,” Taylor said. “There are going to be some people who can’t vote for a Democrat, or for a black candidate. It’s just a fact.”

But the kicker: everybody getting all breathy about Obama winning sweet Virginia. While I'll allow that it could happen, it won't. Virginia houses one of the largest military communities in the country in the Hampton Roads, Newport News region, as well as Ft. Belvoir -- a McCain advantage (look at the Florida primary numbers in the Pensacola region). People argue the overwhelming power of the Northern Virginia vote; while it will certainly take some hardy pushing of the issue, no candidate is more closely aligned with the tone and substance of Northern Virginia than John McCain -- look at the successes of Tom Davis and Frank Wolf -- moderate Republicans. Beyond that, gun rights and the huge NRA lobby in Virginia can carry much of the state. The Commonwealth is ours to lose, so don't let Kaine and Webb fool you.