Cuba, Kosovo: A Cold War Reprise

February was marked by two historic events in international politics. The first occurred on Sunday, February 17, when the parliament of Kosovo declared its independence from Serbian rule. The second came on Tuesday when media outlets confirmed that Fidel Castro, leader of communist Cuba for nearly five decades and a staunch enemy of the United States for almost just as long, would resign his presidency.

With public attention so concentrated on the presidential primaries, these events are likely to go unnoticed, or at least under-appreciated, by much of the country. After all, neither nation’s affairs have made much news in recent years. It would be foolish to ignore, however, the significant foreign policy implications these recent developments may have on the United States and, perhaps more importantly, the increased division and tension they may cause between the U.S. and an increasingly hostile Russian/Chinese coalition.

In 1999, after years of racially charged war with Serbia, Kosovo achieved a relative peace with the assistance of UN, NATO, and U.S. intervention. As in most cases, U.S. interference was not unanimously accepted. In fact, many conservatives opposed U.S. involvement. Debates were waged over the proper direction and cost of these military efforts, the appropriate role of the U.S. and various international organizations, and the general right and responsibility of the U.S. to involve itself in the first place. Disagreement ensued over whether genocide and other human rights violations were, in fact, taking place in the region (these were the most cited reasons for Western interference). 

Since the end of the war, Kosovo has remained under the control of NATO forces. Still, Serbia has maintained its claim over the region—a claim that has been affirmed by both Russia and China. Sunday’s announcement was met with violent protests from ethnic Serbians, an extreme minority in the region, as well as severe condemnation from the Serbian government.

The United States has come out in full support of an independent Kosovo, as have several of our Western allies. The association between Kosovian independence and United States involvement does not end here. Members of the Muslim majority of Kosovo were reported dancing in the streets waving American and Albanian flags, in celebration of U.S. efforts in the Kosovo War and acknowledgement of U.S. support for an Islamic democracy in Europe.

Russia’s disapproval should come as no surprise—the nation has been longing to reassert its power in the Balkans for years. With the rise of pseudo-dictator Vladimir Putin and an alarmingly close relationship between Russia and China, both Security Council members, Cold War politics come to mind.

How the international community will react to this volatile situation remains unclear. For now, it seems that Kosovo’s interests are protected, but it is uncertain whether the region will earn full recognition from the UN. Furthermore, it is uncertain as to what level Russia will go to support Serbian control of the region. Should fighting break out, will Putin lend a hand?

Also reminiscent of Cold War politics is the resignation of Fidel Castro, a major figure, even hero to many, of the communist movement. This development will likely gain far more attention than that in Kosovo, as it may have a significant effect on the 2008 presidential elections. Though his power will likely be passed along to his brother, Raul, we are unlikely to see any immediate democratization of the country. After all, Raul has held temporary power since 2006, and perhaps de facto power for much longer. Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton both support maintaining the current U.S. embargo against Cuba, while Senator Barrack Obama has indicated a preference for lifting the ban—a move that could alienate many Cuban-American voters in Florida (a crucial swing State in the general election).

Certainly, it seems strange to many that the U.S. has continued to hold its embargo so long after the end of the Cold War. If anyone questions whether communism remains a threat to the United States, however, they need only look at the current deterioration of Russian democracy, the rapid economic rise of China, and the resurgence of socialism (communism-lite) in Europe, South America, and the United States.    

Despite certain skepticism over the immediate gravity of Castro’s retirement, it seems clear that Cuba will face some drastic changes over the next few years. Very little is known of its likely successor, Raul. He generally keeps to himself, his exact political ideologies unknown. Furthermore, it is unknown how much influence he holds with the island’s military forces, which appear less indoctrinated by the communist message than is typical in such regimes. No doubt, the nation faces a volatile transition period, one that will hopefully conclude in the formation of a stable democracy but will likely require U.S. and other international support to be fully realized.

Similar effort is needed in Kosovo. Regardless of our initial right to interfere in the Kosovo War, the recognition and protection of a friendly Islamic democracy in the Balkans is in the best interest of the United States and the West. Not only does the Balkan region provide a buffer zone between Russia and Western Europe, but the brand of Islam advocated by the majority of Albanians is a moderate one, tolerant if not outright supportive of the United States. Though combating terrorism remains our national security priority, we cannot ignore the danger that communism and its off-shoots continue to pose to individual liberty, human rights, and democracy. Each of these recent developments provides an opportunity for the United States to send a message: we will continue to advocate democratization across the world, recognizing this as an essential road to world peace.